Turnout flipped my predictions on their ear (my ear?). My predictions were wrong, wrong, wrong.

While I did call the Republican Governor’s race correctly, I did it for all the wrong reasons. I would guess Steelman’s camp is kicking their own ass right now. They should have won. Hulshof did a great job of holding onto his votes from the 9th CD and picking up votes in SEMO. If Steelman could have combined chipping off some of Kenny’s support in those two areas and still accomplished her huge numbers across SWMO and KC – Jay Nixon would be sweating. As it stands Jay Nixon will be our next Governor.

My turnout numbers were way wrong, so the Kinder/Page ‘votes needed’ predictions are off by 50%. Kinder and Page both won how they should have won and are well-positioned for a grudge match til November. Kinder has the backing of the establishment as their last hope to hold onto statewide office and Page has a democratic tide. Page will edge over Kinder come November.

At the time of this writing all the precincts are not yet in, but it looks like Zweifel won the Treasurers race. Powell proved again that you can win votes with no money. Wheeler proved that he is a legacy. I hope we have not seen the last of Andria Simckes. Lager will be no pushover on the Republican ticket, but if Zweifel will continue to steadily move forward he will succeed in November.

I am disappointed that I drank my own Kool-aid. For the last few months I have know that Koster or Donnelly would win the AG primary, but in recent days I started to believe that Harris was moving forward. I didn’t go out and ask people to come to this new conclusion, I dreamed it up on my own. At the time of this writing, I believe Koster or Donnelly will challenge the results, and it will be a week before we know who won this race.

(Jeff Roe had the same problems making predictions)